Adaptation under Uncertainty: Advances in Scenario Planning for Adaptation Professionals

Adaptation under Uncertainty: Advances in Scenario Planning for Adaptation Professionals

Organizer: 
Brian W. Miller
U.S. Geological Survey, North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center
Time Slot: 
Luncheon Sessions Day 3
Session Type: 
Working Group
Abstract: 

Despite the daunting uncertainty associated with adapting to a changing climate, adaptation professionals must make plans and implement actions to meet their goals. Scenario planning is a structured process that works with uncertainty by identifying and describing a small set of plausible futures that capture the range of conditions an institution, landscape, or resource might face. These future scenarios can be used to understand vulnerabilities and develop strategies and actions to succeed. This interactive session will highlight recent advances in developing usable information related to scenarios, and applications of scenario planning with brief examples from state resource management agencies, NOAA Fisheries protected species recovery, National Park Service planning efforts, and more. Through these case studies, the working group will articulate barriers, best-practices, and recommendations for conducting and applying scenario planning. We will synthesize these insights into practical guidance on scenario planning and its use by resource management agencies to facilitate adaptation under uncertainty.

Co-organizers:

Aparna Bamzai-Dodson, US Geological Survey, North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center
Diane Borggaard, NOAA Fisheries Service
Dori Dick, Ocean Associates Inc. in support of Office of Protected Resources, NOAA Fisheries
Carolyn Enquist, US Geological Survey, Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center
Cat Hawkins Hoffman, National Park Service
Chris Hoving, Michigan Department of Natural Resources
Toni Lyn Morelli, US Geological Survey, Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center
Imtiaz Rangwala, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder
Gregor Schuurman, National Park Service